Guard

The Reality Shares Guard Indicator is a proprietary market-strength indicator designed to enhance risk-adjusted investment returns by identifying long-term directional changes in the stock market. Its predictive algorithm applies a unique combination of momentum and volatility gauges to the broad market sectors to forecast long-term market downturns and help investors protect their portfolios.

As shown in the Guard Gauge, when nine or more of the sectors are positive, the overall Guard Indicator is positive and the market is expected to rise. When three or more of the sectors turn negative, it signals a broad market decline. Read our Guard Whitepaper to learn more. The data is updated daily.

The following graphic shows where the volatility and price factors stand for each of the market sectors, along with an estimate of when sectors are expected to turn fully negative within the next 50 days. This expectation is calculated using trailing technical indicators and assumes the current day’s closing sector prices remain constant for the next 50 days. When both the volatility and price factors are negative, the sector enters negative territory.

As of .

The Guard Indicator has been successful identifying major long-term market declines in backtesting, including both of the most recent major bear markets in the U.S. The chart below illustrates the relative performance of investing in the S&P 500 Total Return Index (SPXT) when the Guard Indicator is 9 or higher, and switching to the Barclays Aggregate U.S. Bond Index otherwise, compared to investing in the SPXT alone. Click on a series name in the legend to add/remove it from the chart. The data is updated quarterly. Scroll over for more information.

The interactive chart below shows the performance of each of the broad market sectors using the Guard methodology. Each sector’s percentage reflects how far that sector is from bear market territory. A negative percentage indicates the sector is expected to suffer a downward market trend. When three or more sector scores are negative, the Guard Indicator signals a broad market decline. The table shows the longer-term Guard trend, including the percentage for each sector on that date and an arrow indicating whether that period’s score is above or below the prior period. The data is updated daily. Scroll over for more information. Note: Effective the close of trading on Sep. 16, 2016, the Guard Indicator tracked 11 broad market sectors due to the addition of the Real Estate sector.

 The following interactive chart displays the Guard Score trends for the broad market sectors for the period of Jun. 25, 1999, through . By examining each sector trend individually, we can identify individual inflection points and predict how they would impact the overall Guard Indicator. Each sector’s percentage reflects how far that sector is from bear market territory. A negative percentage indicates the sector is expected to suffer a downward market trend. Click on a sector to view the historical Guard Score trend for that sector only. Click on a series name in the legend to add/remove it from the chart. The data is updated weekly. Scroll over for more information.